Food security in Food deficit countries

Working Paper
[World bank staff working paper no. 393]

The central proposition of this paper is that periodic short- falls in aggregate food consumption in the developing countries are pri- marily related to poor harvests in the countries and not short world supplies. Instability of food grain consumption in the 1960s and early 1970s was high in many countries while the world market was nearly sta~le. Consumption was highly correlated with production. Neither stocks nor imports were apparently used aggressively enough to counter fluctuations in production. A simulation model 1S used to evaluate the stability of food consumption under alcernative tr-ade and stock policies. A stabilizing trade policy lS shown to he by far the most effective and economically pre [erred instrument for achieving food security. Aside from political consideration of placing reliance on highly fluctuating levels of imports, wh i c h are not discussed in the paper, such policies are feasible only, however, if countries are able and willing to cope with highly fluctuating import bills.

Date and language
Jun 1980
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Corporate Author

Agris Subject Categories: 
Food Security
Physical Location: 
FPMU Documentation Center
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